Day: December 3, 2015

By Nehginpao Kipgen

National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi on 19 November met representatives of more than 50 countries, including Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Japan, Norway, Russia and the United States.

After waiting for 25 years since her party’s electoral victory in the 1990 general election was annulled by the military government, Ms Suu Kyi is convinced that her time has come to lead Myanmar.

In conjunction with her political ambition, she took steps not to antagonise the majority voters of the country, who are predominantly Buddhists.

She not only maintained silence on human rights violations against the country’s minority Muslims, but her party also avoided fielding Muslim candidates.

As a politician, her electoral strategy worked well in her favour, much better than many analysts had predicted before the election.

As the NLD prepares to form the next government, there are some concerns. One major concern is the possible confrontation between the NLD and the military, which still remains a powerful force and essential element in the country’s polity.

Before the election, Ms Suu Kyi said: “If we win, and the NLD forms a government, I will be above the president… the Constitution says nothing about somebody being above the president.”

In response, senior official Zaw Htay at the President’s office said Ms Suu Kyi’s comments were “against the constitutional provision” which states that the president takes precedence over all other persons.

After the election on 10 November, the NLD leader continued to say that the president “will have no authority, and will act in accordance with the decisions of the party…because in any democratic country, it’s the leader of the winning party that becomes the leader of the government”.

Her pre- and post-election remarks unequivocally show that she is keen and ambitious to lead not only her party but also the next government. Since the NLD now has a majority of the seats in both houses of Parliament, the party is in a position to elect the president and one of the two vice-presidents.

The participation of the NLD in the 2015 general election means that the party has agreed to respect the 2008 Constitution, which protects the inherent role of the military in politics. Despite its majority in Parliament, the NLD would need to accept the reservation of 25 per cent of the seats for the military; as well as the post of one vice-president and Cabinet portfolios for home, defence and border affairs, and the formation of the National Defence and Security Council, which will have the authority to declare a national emergency for the military to take charge of all branches of the government – executive, judiciary and legislative.

There is no doubt that Ms Suu Kyi would act with due diligence not to provoke the military leaders. And at the same time, she will play more or less the role of Ms Sonia Gandhi during the Congress-led government in India.

However, there is a danger that the military may find it difficult to tolerate the country’s president becoming a puppet of Ms Suu Kyi. If such situation arises, the military will criticise the president for incompetence.

It must be remembered that one of the reasons General Ne Win staged a military coup in 1962 was the allegation that the civilian government under the leadership of Prime Minister U Nu was incapable of effective administration across the country.

There are two main concerns that can provoke the military to intervene or disrupt the civilian government – the peace process with ethnic armed groups and the question of constitutional amendment.

If the military, which considers itself the guardian and protector of the state, sees that the NLD government is incapable of resolving the decades-old ethnic minority problems and feels that there is an imminent threat to the country’s national and territorial integrity, it will find a reason to intervene.

Similarly, if the military sees that the NLD government uses its power to try to amend or replace the 2008 Constitution with the objective of reducing or eliminating the role of the military in politics, it will likely feel provoked.

The people of Myanmar and the international community should understand that the democratisation process that has been put in place is one of consensual transition, in which the authoritarian leaders actively participate in the process of change by controlling or limiting the change. This type of transition entails some degree of political continuity between authoritarianism and democracy.

Only when the military leaders are convinced that the peace process with ethnic armed groups is politically resolved and when they no longer fear being prosecuted for crimes committed during the years of military rule, will they be willing to give up their political role.

To avoid confrontation with the military and the country’s ethnic minorities, Ms Suu Kyi must ensure that both these groups are either consulted or included in all major decisions the NLD government takes.

It would be a wise move on her part if she can allocate some important portfolios to ethnic minorities. Even if she acts as the architect or above the president, she must act diligently not to provoke the military leadership and not to betray the trust of ethnic minorities.

Read more / Original news source: http://kanglaonline.com/2015/12/can-suu-kyi-be-an-effective-sonia/

By Dr. Shamshad Akhtar

Global leaders are gathered in Paris for the COP21 climate summit.Given Asia-Pacific’s size and its contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, its voice and commitment are critical to achieving a comprehensive agreement on climate change. Many Asia Pacific countries are developing and must focus on achieving sustained economic growth and  development.  Of the 49 regional members of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 43 have a light climate footprint, contributing only 10 per cent to global emissions. For these countries, notably the least developed countries, Pacific islands and low-lying states, vulnerability to climate-related natural disasters will grow with climate change.  At the other extreme, the region is home to six of the top 10 emitters in the world – China, India, Russia, Japan, Indonesia and Iran – which account for about 43 per cent of global emissions.Of these top six Asian emitters, fossil fuel-based energy is responsible for about 80 per cent of their collective emissions, with emissions from industrial processes, agriculture and waste playing a lesser role. Mitigating the emissionsof these countries requiresmultiple actions,key among which is a switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

Of the 183 countries that have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 43 are from the Asia-Pacific region. Countries across the region have indicated both conditional and unconditional reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.Theseincludeeconomy-wide emissions targets or deviation from a business as usual (BAU) scenario to an intensity targets of emissions per unit of GDP. Many INDCs, particularly those from the developing countries, include an overall rise in emissions by 2030.

While this is remarkable in its own right, they still leave a significant gap between the INDCs pledged and the cuts required to keep the temperature increase to below two degrees Celsius warming limit.  This gap is close to 16 billion tonnes of CO₂ reductions per annum by 2030, roughly equal to the current emissions of China, India, and Russia combined. The only way we can bridge this gap is if we collectively treat the INDCs announced as the floor to be raised by enabling countries to adopt and implement additional measures needed with technical, financial and capacity support.

Despite the present gap between the INDCs and the necessary emission reductions, progress is underway in our region.This not only sets specific economies on course for a low carbon future, but will also alter the global dynamics. China’s INDC, for instance, targets emissions to peak by 2030 at the latest, and for emissions intensity of GDP to decline by 60 to 65 per cent. Progress in energy efficiency, switching to gas and the development of hydro, wind and solar energy has now begun to show results, with China’s coal consumption having peaked in 2013. India proposes to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 33 to 35 per cent, and to ensure that 40 per cent of its power generation capacity is from non-fossil sources by 2030. In support of this objective, India plans to install 60 gigawatts of wind power and 100 gigawatts of solar power capacity by 2022, a six-fold increase over the current capacity.

Changes in the energy generation mix, efficiency and conservation of energy use and developing carbon sinks through reforestation and soil carbon will be important strategies to stabilize emissions in the Asia-Pacific region.  There has been some progress on all these fronts in our region, but more needs to be done. With advanced energy efficiency, the region could save 35 per cent of its energy consumption against business as usual by 2035. As the region’s urban population is expected to reach 3.2 billion by 2050, there is an opportunity to pioneer low carbon cities with energy efficient buildings, innovative urban planning and efficient transportation systems. There is also a need to switch from coal to renewables and to promote cleaner coal technologies, as coal still accounts for 55 per cent of electricity generation in the Asia-Pacific. In adopting clean energy alternatives countries are also addressing the scourge of air pollution, which has emerged as a grim reality for many city dwellers across the region. While non-hydro renewables such as wind and solar currently contribute less than 2 per cent ofregional electricity generation, growth has been rapid from a small base. The expected shift to renewables will be a net benefit for Asian economies.It will reduce dependence on imported fuels as the region is a net energy importer, enhance energy security and improve the balance of payments.  To harness a low carbon future, the region needs to further tap its tax potential, which could be raised by 5 per cent of GDP. This would potentially mobilize $1.5 trillion while private sector savings in the region are close to $6 trillion.

The success of the COP21 climate summit is critical for all of us as climate change does not respect boundaries and no one can escape its effects. Country submissions for emission reduction are good starting point but remain nonbinding targets.The steep growth in energy demand in the Asia-Pacific means more will need to be done to increase the overall penetration of renewable energy in the coming decades, with collective and concerted actions critical to addressing the problem at its source.  The future of our region and indeed of our planet hinges on the Asia-Pacific region mobilizing its skills and resources to find enduring solutions.

The author is an Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). She is also the UN’s Sherpa for the G20 and previously served as Governor of the Central Bank of Pakistan and Vice President of the MENA Region of the World Bank.

Read more / Original news source: http://kanglaonline.com/2015/12/asia-pacific-response-to-climate-change/